Resilience model (MTSRF Project 2.5i.4)

This simulation model allows various scenarios to be run which test how different percentages of nutrient reductions (and the parallel improvement in inshore reef quality) might operate in conjunction with raised water temperatures (as a result of climate change). The model has been used for the following simulations: The beneficial impact of end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients reductions (10%, 30%, 50% and 70%) in raising the bleaching resistance (i.e. the UTBT, °C) of inshore reefs between Townsville and Cooktown. The impact of 10%, 30%, 50% and 70% reductions in end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients for the Burdekin, Herbert, Tully, Johnstone, Russell, Barron, Daintree, Endeavour, Jeannie and Normanby river systems. Two scenarios for the Tully River Basin - an 18% reduction in fertiliser N application, and a 35% reduction.

To develop a tool that enables greater characterization of risks posed to the linked GBR social-ecological system due to the effects of climate change.

The model interfaces source code written in C++ with ArcGIS webmaps. Details pertaining to the rationale, development and application of the individual submodels and integrating framework can be found within the refereed journal articles: Related AIMS Publications Wooldridge SA (2007) Linking land-use change scenarios with predicted water quality improvements within the GBR lagoon. Report for Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF). Australian Institute of Marine Science. 16 p. http://data.aims.gov.au/extp...leId=7678 Wooldridge SA (2008) Modeling the improved resilience of inshore reefs to climate change due to terrestrial water quality improvements. Report to the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility. Reef and Rainforest Research Centre and Australian Institute of Marine Science. 28 p. http://data.aims.gov.au/extp...leId=8131 Wooldridge SA (2009) Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Marine Pollution Bulletin 58: 745-751. http://data.aims.gov.au/extp...leId=8023 Wooldridge SA and Done TJ (2009) Improved water quality can ameliorate effects of climate change on corals. Ecological Applications 19: 1492-1499. http://data.aims.gov.au/extp...leId=8191

Principal Investigator
Wooldridge, Scott A, Dr Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS)
Point Of Contact
Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) adc@aims.gov.au

Publications / Data
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Tags: Oceans - Ocean Temperature - Potential Temperature | Bleaching prediction | Modelling | Climate change | Reef resilience