GBR Resilience Model

Projected annual exceedence probability (AEP) for 50% coral mortality events (LD50) given a 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% reduction in end-of-river DIN load. The projections are run for the No mitigation (‘business-as-usual’) and CO₂ Mitigation (‘Stabilisation at 450 ppm’) global warming scenarios. The 10yr ARI (grey line) is indicative of the maximum bleaching disturbance frequency for the maintenance of a viable hard-coral-dominated reefscape. The results highlight that, as an absolute minimum, local reductions in DIN load of ~50% AND global CO₂ stabilisation at ~ 450 ppm are needed to ensure the long-term persistence (viability) of the inshore reefs of the central GBR.